A modelización dos cambios na lonxevidade da población do País Basco e a súa estimación futura

  1. Amaia Jone Betzuen Álvarez 1
  2. Amancio Betzuen Zalbidegoitia 1
  1. 1 Universidad del País Vasco/Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea
    info

    Universidad del País Vasco/Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea

    Lejona, España

    ROR https://ror.org/000xsnr85

Journal:
Revista galega de economía: Publicación Interdisciplinar da Facultade de Ciencias Económicas e Empresariais

ISSN: 1132-2799

Year of publication: 2015

Volume: 24

Issue: 2

Pages: 45-54

Type: Article

DOI: 10.15304/RGE.24.2.2929 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openDialnet editor

More publications in: Revista galega de economía: Publicación Interdisciplinar da Facultade de Ciencias Económicas e Empresariais

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to estimate the future trend of the Basque population´s mortality focusing on its improvement for the period 1991-2013 for which the study is validable. The research involves the use of a two-stage stochastic model graduation, for which we add two contributions. On the one hand, supervised initial information will help in forecasting the ageing of Basque Country´s population under Solvency II guidelines. On the other hand, when estimating, a variant is included in the extension of the calendar time´s parameter using a logarithmic-linear regression, rather than the known "random walk with drift".

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