Las predicciones sobre el crecimiento económicoposibilidad de un modelo operativo

  1. Martínez López, Jabier
  2. Santacoloma Sanz, Juan Francisco
Journal:
Boletín de estudios económicos

ISSN: 0006-6249

Year of publication: 2005

Volume: 60

Issue: 184

Pages: 87-117

Type: Article

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More publications in: Boletín de estudios económicos

Abstract

The paper starts by identifying the variables that conditions the growth of GDP, then uses them to construct a model that provides a simple means of predicting how GDPwill vary in the long term. The benchmark is always the Spanish economy. Its most specific characteristic is that it is half-way between the approach of the neoclassical approach, where cycles are produced around a given value, and the "real cycle" approach, where cycles correspond to potential GDP. It is configured as part of a more general prediction model. It may be used via a personal access system to a website.

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