Globalisation and the unpredictability of crisis episodesan empirical analysis of country risk indexes

  1. San Martín Albizuri, Nerea
  2. Rodríguez Castellanos, Arturo
Journal:
Investigaciones europeas de dirección y economía de la empresa

ISSN: 1135-2523

Year of publication: 2012

Volume: 18

Issue: 2

Pages: 148-155

Type: Article

DOI: 10.1016/S1135-2523(12)70005-9 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openDialnet editor

More publications in: Investigaciones europeas de dirección y economía de la empresa

Abstract

Aunque la actual crisis muestra entre los factores causantes de su desencadenamiento ciertas propiedades únicas, no puede obviarse el hecho de que comparte algunas características con las crisis anteriores que se produjeron especialmente a partir de 1994. Y una de estas características es la imprevisibilidad. El objetivo del presente trabajo es contrastar si los índices más conocidos y utilizados (el índice de Euromoney y el ICRG) y las variables más representativas incluidas en su configuración fueron capaces de anticipar las crisis que tuvieron lugar entre 1994 y 2002, esto es, las crisis de la �era de la globalización�. Los resultados obtenidos son negativos, por lo que se concluye que el valor de los índices y el valor de las variables en ellos contenidas se muestran incapaces de reflejar con suficiente antelación �a medio plazo� las vulnerabilidades que se desarrollaron previamente al surgimiento de los episodios de crisis.

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