Flood risk and climate change. An estimation for the catchment area of the River Urola

Resumen

The aim of this article is to estimate the ood risk in a particular catchment area situated in the north of Spain. The case study corresponds to the catchment basin of the river Urola. Given the importance that global warming has on the frequency and severity of oods our analysis considers the potential eect that climate change has on the frequency of ooding. The loss-probability curves are modied according to the result of this estimation. We also consider the impor- tance that economic and social development in the basin has when it comes to estimation of damages for ooding. This analysis, to our judgment, constitutes a useful, and in some sense unavoidable, exercise for strategic ood management as it may help to adopt better and more suited decisions.