On the informational role of term structure in the U.S. monetary policy rule

1. Vázquez, Jesús
2. María-Dolores Pedrero, Ramón
3. Londoño Yarce, Juan Miguel

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Résumé

The term spread may play a major role in a monetary policy rule whenever data revisions of output and inflation are not well behaved. In this paper we use a structural approach based on the indirect inference principle to estimate a standard version of the New Keynesian Monetary (NKM) model augmented with term structure using both revised and real-time data. The estimation results show that the term spread becomes a significant determinant of the U.S. estimated monetary policy rule when revised and real-time data of output and inflation are both considered.

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